| Current stock | 3,000 L |
| Est. annual consumption | ~2,500 L |
| Next heating season | Oct 2026 |
| Replacement cost | — |
| Buy signal | Brent < $80 | Heizöl < €90 |
| Scenario | Prob. | Brent | Heizöl DE | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz reopens by May | 40% | $70–80 | €85–95 | De-escalation, shipping resumes |
| Conflict drags to June | 35% | $90–110 | €110–135 | Partial flow, risk premium persists |
| Extended closure | 25% | $130–200 | €150–200+ | Full blockade, reserves depleted |